Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Guess the percentages!

UPDATE: Voters received an email this morning from the Synod Secretary informing us that the election is complete, no runoff will be necessary, but that the bylaws prevent an announcement of the results until July 6.

The voting is over. So which of our readers has the best intuitive understanding of the LCMS? Make your best guess on the percentages for each candidate in the LCMS presidential election before the results are announced on July 6.

+HRC

18 comments:

  1. Hendrickson will have the results down to the .0001 level :)

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  2. Replies
    1. Better put in your guess for Maier and Mueller, too: we might need a tie breaker.

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    2. I'm guessing a clear victory for Pres. Harrison as well...say 65%, which 4% going to Mueller and the balance to Maier.

      +HRC

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  3. I predict the percentage vote for the three nominees will total 100%, unless the electronic tallying is done in Chicago, in which case I predict it to be 132% or more.

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  4. 62 for Harrison, 2 for Mueller, and 36 for Maier, although that seems a little high

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  5. I've heard that some of the more earnest brethren "boycotted" the election or voted for somebody else to "send a message." The only message such an action sends is, "Hello, I'm a Very Silly Person."

    Percentages?

    60% Harrison.
    10% Mueller.
    30% Maier.

    I'd be surprised, if Harrison won, that he just squeaked by as the previous president did each time he was returned to office, of course, declaring this a "MANDATE" for his leadership and direction.

    We'll see if the losing side this time will concede the winner now has a very clear MANDATE for his leadership and direction.

    I somehow doubt that will happen.

    But I could be wrong.

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    1. I think there is a great argument that whoever wins this election has a better mandate than another president since the days of Walther and Pieper: because the ratio of voters to congregants is so much higher than at any time since the early 20th century.

      If Harrison doesn't break 60% of votes cast I'll be really surprised.

      +HRC

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  6. Should be interesting, that's for sure.

    But as for "mandate" ... indeed. Whoever wins, by however much, will have more claim to a "mandate" than since those days of yore you mention.

    I always enjoy listening to the losing side talk about what a "razor thin margin" the guy they didn't vote for, won by and listening to the "winning side" talk about what a powerful and decisive mandate "their guy" received, no matter how small a majority he received.

    Ah, politics!

    Always a matter of whose oxe is getting gored.

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  7. The most interesting statistic will be the actual number of eligible voters who actually voted. There are 8,000+ eligible voters. I'm predicting that only half of those voted, if that. The apathy that was evident during the "practice" voting will show that the BRTFSG (or whatever their letters were)was in error that every congregation in Synod wanted and needed their vote to count in the presidential elections. The people who have not cared in the past, do not care now either.

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    1. Indeed, I hope that stat is released as well. But is there any Bylaw requiring its release?

      But I don't know about gauging this by looking at the practice voting. I think anybody within a decade of my generation would skip that: we don't need practice on working the "Series of Tubes." :)

      +HRC

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    2. Pr. Curtis:

      I would read Synod Bylaw 3.12.2.3.b as envisioning the publication of the number of votes each candidate receives: Two weeks prior to the convention, the Secretary shall notify the candidates of the results of the ballots. He shall thereafter also make the results known to the public. The candidate receiving the majority of the votes cast shall be recognized as elected.

      The bylaw doesn't say that the Secretary publishes the name of whomever receives the most votes or the result of the election. Instead, it uses the phrase "results of the ballots". And that seems to be very similar to what Secretaries of States or County Clerks have to do: publish the vote totals.

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    3. Couldn't "results of the ballots" simply be X% for this candidate, y% for that, and z% for the other?

      Seems awfully open to interpretation...

      +HRC

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  8. I strongly suspect Rev. Kumm is absolutely correct.

    A real shame because, as the saying goes, "decisions are made by the people who show up."

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  9. Scripture indicates that lots were cast, and the lot fell on Matthias (Acts 1:26). Seems rather dichotomous to me; along the lines of a "YES" or a "NO." You win, or you lose. It is what it is.

    But that was then.

    Nowadays, of course, the media pundits and the politicians, and the masses they sway, greatly worry about the size of an outcome, so as to establish a "mandate" to lead. This sort of thinking plays directly into the hands of the fomenting rebellious and the adversarial, perhaps taking no little inspiration from the original rebel, our Adversary: "If you really are an Apostle, turn that 'four of a kind' into a YAHTZEE."

    Your (unworthy) servant,
    Herr Doktor

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  11. The more I think about it, the more I believe Harrison will be returned to office by a two thirds majority. My vote is he will get 66%

    Why?

    He is extremely popular and has, through his genuinely pastoral manner and leadership won the confidence of the electorate.

    Because now there are so many rank and file pastors and laity voting, I think the Synod president vote will go much more like many district convention votes go.

    Of course, there will always be the cantankerous left and right wings in our Synod, but the larger majority will be for Harrison.

    And that's my final answer, Regis.

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  12. "...I believe Harrison will be returned to office...

    Why?

    He is extremely popular and has, through his genuinely pastoral manner and leadership won the confidence of the electorate."
    -- the Rev. McCain

    And besides, didn't our dear Lord Jesus end up being hoisted up and recognized publicly as the King of the Jews, not long after that "Year of Popularity?"

    Your (unworthy) servant,
    Herr Doktor

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