Thus, of the class of 2011, 5% did not receive calls by Call Day. So my first prediction was right on. (Though I did also include part-time calls in my numbers. If any readers have inside information on how many calls at either seminary turn out to be part-time calls, that would help us get a fuller picture of the situation.)
Alas, when I predicted that the burden would be shared between the two seminaries, I was mistaken. Last year was worse than this year only by the force of the numbers - the imbalance between the two seminaries actually grew worse.
Why? I looked at calls to various districts over the past few years, and the problem does not seem to be with certain districts black balling CTS grads. I found only one district which could not be exonerated of that charge based on the numbers from 2008-2011. As I mentioned earlier, I think the imbalance is largely due to the discrepancy between the two seminaries when it come to the sort of calls they seem to specialize in: CTS in first calls as sole pastor to small parish(es) and CTS in first calls to larger parishes as assistant/associate pastor. At CTS this year, about 16% of the placements were as assistant/associate pastors. Last year at CSL, they placed 43% of their men in assistant/associate positions, and another 12.5% were placed as missionaries, chaplains, worker priests, or part-time positions. The downturn in LCMS membership is hitting small, rural parishes hardest (as well as small urban parishes). This is leading to greater shortages in the sort of calls CTS specializes in. Another interesting thing to look at tonight will be calls to dual parishes - at CTS those make up 13% of the calls. The number will usually be much, much smaller at CSL.