CORRECTED - I miscounted earlier and have corrected some math below. Thanks to a correspondent from the CTS class of 2010 for some additional information now included below in brackets.
Last night at the call service in Fort Wayne, 62 men [2 of whom were actually from the class of 2010] were put forward for placement and 54 [2 of whom were actually from the class of 2010] were given assignments (six others chose to do graduate studies and I am leaving them out of the math). Our prayers ascend for the eight who must continue to wait. I don't know whether any, and if so how many, of the calls were to part-time positions.
We'll offer a full analysis, Lord willing, after the service in St. Louis, but so far it looks that I have been too optimistic in my predictions, to wit:
1. Setting aside those who elect to do graduate studies, 5-10% of candidates will not be placed on Call Day. For CTS the number is just over 12% (or 13% if you remove the two men from the class of 2010 from the math). That number could easily come down into the range I predicted after CSL's placement tonight, but then that would prove me wrong in my second prediction. . .
2. The COP would bend over backwards to make sure that the shortage of calls was borne by both seminaries in proportion to their number of graduates and thus we would not see a repeat of last year where the burden was disproportionately borne by CTS.
Now those two predictions cannot both hold in any way that spells good news.
I wish God's richest blessings to those now preparing for ordination and service in Christ's Church. And I hope that the leadership of our Synod and seminaries can find a way to tackle this problem head on - and quickly.